Demand Forecasting

Read below the process of demand forecasting

Demand Forecasting

Monthly Generation Forecast

The Seller provides ESCOM Single Market Operator (SMO), with copy to SB, in writing for each month from the Commercial Operation Date (including during Scheduled Outages), by no later than [09:00 hours on the 25th] of the preceding month, the forecast availability of fuel, the Available Capacity and any other information required in the Market Rules or Market Procedures for the Year Ahead Operational Plan and the Monthly Update. Based on this information and the information provided by the rest of Market Participants, the SMO carries out the Monthly Updated Plan from which it obtains a tentative hourly generation forecast of the Seller’s plant; SB presents the tentative daily generation schedule to the Seller and both agrees on this schedule. In case of lack of agreement, the SB proposal is applied, unless Seller can demonstrate that it endangers its installations security or does not fulfil its obligations related to environmental aspects or minimum discharges. This activity is carried out by the Technical Committee; Under no circumstance shall an hourly generation forecast included in the Monthly Generation Forecast exceed the Available Capacity of the Power Plant.

Weekly Generation Forecast

The Seller provides to ESCOM SMO, with copy to SB, as defined in the Market Procedures, for each Week from the Commercial Operation Date, by no later than [09:00 hours on the preceding Wednesday], the Seller's estimate made in good faith of fuel availability, the Available Capacity, and any other information required in the Market Rules or Market Procedures. Based on this information, SMO adjusts the hourly generation forecast for the rest of the month that will constitute the Weekly Generation Forecast On each Friday, representatives of Seller and SB or the Technical Committee meets to agree how the Hourly generation Schedule that will be produced during each hour of the week starting the following Monday. This set of hourly generation constitutes the Generation Schedule for the next week that will be nominated to the SMO. In case of disagreement, the opinion of the SB is adopted, provided it leads to feasible and secure Generation Schedule and has the means that fulfils the requirements of the Grid Code. The Seller and SB informs the SMO about the Generation Schedule that they agreed to be produced each hour of the next week. SMO verifies the feasibility to transfer that energy, and in case it is not possible, informs Seller and SB, which will have to adapt the Generation Schedule to the SMO instructions. The agreed Generation Schedule is included in an Agreement on Notifications, which is signed by the participants of the meeting. Seller becomes responsible to confirm every day to the SMO the Daily Nominations agreed. The parties can agree to replace meetings with interchanges by e-mail. In case there is a change in the fuel availability or plant availability that can lead to a Nomination reduction, the Seller informs the causes to SB in writing. SB analyses the reasons and may accept a change in the Nominations. This new Daily Nominations is informed to the SMO. The Weekly Generation Forecast includes the reserve margins that the Seller should maintain to provide Frequency Regulation Reserves as requested by the SMO in the Weekly Ahead Plan. In case of high water inflows in the Malawi’s reservoirs that may lead to "Spillage Situation", SMO can instruct the Seller to reduce the 255 generation of the Daily Nominations. This reduction is not be considered a reduction in the Available Capacity. In the event that the SMO fails to provide the Weekly Ahead Schedule for any Week, then the Seller defines the Weekly Generation Forecast, which is valid until SMO provides a new Weekly Ahead Schedule for such Week.

Daily Generation Forecast

The Seller informs the SMO every day, before 9:00 Malawi’s time, or the time requested in the Market Rules or Market Procedures, the power it Nominates for each hour of the next day, as well as any other information necessary for the SMO to prepare the Day Ahead and Real Time dispatch. This Daily Nominations should coincide with the Generation Schedule agreed between Seller and SB, according with the procedure described in the previous section on Weekly Generation Forecast. The Seller may introduce changes to the Generation Schedule for verifiable security reasons, or because orders of the SMO. Any reduction not based on security reasons or SMO orders will be considered and reduction in the plants Available Capacity

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